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Lottery odds don't match the IRA sure thing

So why do so many lottery players prefer the long odds of a state-run game? Is the dream itself of beating 76 million-to-1 odds that much more rewarding than watching a retirement fund grow? Is the unlikely chance of sharing a jackpot--taking home $100 million and few million more in change, before taxes--that much better than the strong likelihood that by investing less than $40 a week, every week, in an IRA beginning this week, the twentysomething investor could have more than $3 million to retire on?

That's my favorite example, you know: Invest $2,000 a year in an IRA, growing at the stock market's historic rate of 10.6 percent, and in 50 years, you'll have accumulated $3.1 million to spend in retirement.

These days people tell me they've given up on the stock market. They took their shot on technology stocks or dot-coms, and lost a lot of money. They'll never buy stocks again. That happens when a bull market bubble bursts. People sell out at the bottom, and swear not to play again. Of course, that means they miss the best time to buy.

Funny thing, though. I haven't heard anyone swear off the lottery this week just because they weren't one of those big winners. Which must prove that fantasy is stronger than fact, or daydreams are more powerful than self-discipline.

Or that if the odds get long enough, you can make fools out of even the most sensible people. And that's The Savage Truth.

Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser and is on the board of directors of McDonald's Corp. and Pennzoil-Quaker State Co. Send questions via e-mail to savage@suntimes.com. She appears weekly on WMAQ-Channel 5's 4:30 p.m. newscast.

States should push IRAs, not lotteries

With all due respect to the people who run the state lotteries, I wish they were selling Individual Retirement Accounts.